Can Montenegro Really Become the EU's 28th Member by 2028

Recent Breakthroughs in Montenegro EU Accession

Montenegro's EU accession journey took a significant leap forward on December 16, 2025, when the country provisionally closed five more negotiating chapters during an intergovernmental conference in Brussels. This move, covering areas like agriculture, fisheries, and free movement of capital, brings the total closed chapters to 12 out of 33 opened, signaling renewed momentum in Montenegro EU accession efforts. The development follows a brief standoff with France, which initially raised objections over alignment in agriculture and fisheries but ultimately relented, allowing progress to continue. This recent advance underscores Montenegro's determination to accelerate its Montenegro EU accession path amid broader EU enlargement discussions.

Historically, Montenegro's push for EU membership traces back to its independence from Serbia in 2006, a pivotal moment that set the stage for Western integration. Early aspirations were bolstered by NATO membership in 2017, but EU talks, formally opened in 2012, stalled due to internal political instability and external geopolitical shifts. For instance, negotiations froze in 2018 amid rule-of-law concerns, only to regain traction under the current pro-EU government led by Prime Minister Milojko Spajić. This context highlights how Montenegro EU accession has evolved from post-Yugoslav fragmentation to a strategic priority, especially as the EU seeks to counter Russian influence in the Western Balkans.

Core Debates Shaping Montenegro EU Accession

At the heart of Montenegro EU accession lies a tension between rapid progress and lingering reforms. While the country has opened all 33 screened chapters, a feat unmatched by other Western Balkan candidates, it remains far from completion, with 21 chapters still open as of late 2025. Key debates center on judicial independence and anti-corruption measures, areas where Montenegro has made strides but faces criticism for uneven implementation. The European Commission's 2025 Enlargement Package praises Montenegro as a frontrunner alongside Albania, noting steady advancements in public procurement and company law. However, analysts argue that geopolitical urgency, rather than pure merit, is driving the pace, as the EU aims to stabilize the region amid Ukraine's ongoing conflict.

Montenegro EU accession also grapples with economic alignment. The country's small economy, heavily reliant on tourism and services, must harmonize with EU standards on competition and environmental policies. Recent closures in chapters like free movement of capital demonstrate compliance, but challenges persist in sectors such as agriculture, where rural development reforms are critical for absorbing EU funds post-accession.

This debate reflects broader questions: Can Montenegro sustain reforms without succumbing to political backsliding, a risk seen in past governments influenced by pro-Russian elements?

Data and Trends in Montenegro EU Accession

Quantitative insights reveal both promise and hurdles in Montenegro EU accession. Since negotiations began in 2012, progress has been incremental, with only seven chapters closed by mid-2025, jumping to 12 by year's end after six closures in 2025 alone. Trends from the European Commission's reports show improvements in rule-of-law benchmarks, with Montenegro scoring moderately prepared in judiciary and fundamental rights, up from limited preparation in 2018.

This table synthesizes data from EU reports and national surveys, illustrating upward trends in Montenegro EU accession metrics. Yet, brain drain remains a stark trend, with over 10% of the population emigrating since 2010, undermining reform capacity. Economic data points to integration benefits, projecting a 20-30% GDP boost upon accession, but trends also highlight vulnerabilities like weak rule of law, which could delay final approvals.

Expert Perspectives on Montenegro EU Accession

Experts offer diverse insights into Montenegro EU accession, emphasizing its strategic value. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, during her October 2025 visit to Podgorica, stated, "You are determined to complete all negotiation chapters next year. We support your ambition for 2028, we like ambition." This endorsement reflects optimism from EU leadership, viewing Montenegro as a low-risk addition to bolster enlargement credibility.

EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos echoed this during her January 2025 meetings, declaring, "Montenegro has the historic opportunity to become the next Member State of the European Union." Prime Minister Spajić, in November 2025, urged, "Montenegro's progress on the path towards the European Union must be stronger and faster." Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó highlighted double standards, noting in June 2025, "Montenegro’s EU accession would bring real economic and security benefits, unlike Ukraine’s."

From think tanks, Engjellushe Morina of the European Council on Foreign Relations argued in December 2025 for avoiding indefinite gradualism, stressing full accession focus for Montenegro and others. These perspectives converge on Montenegro EU accession as a test case for EU commitment, blending geopolitical strategy with reform imperatives.

Counterarguments and Balanced Views in Montenegro EU Accession

Despite advances, counterarguments question the feasibility of Montenegro EU accession by 2028. Skeptics point to persistent challenges like weak rule of law and corruption, with the Aspen Institute noting in December 2025 that brain drain and institutional gaps could derail progress. France's brief blockade in December 2025 exemplifies internal EU divisions, where enlargement skepticism clashes with geopolitical urgency.

Critics also argue that prioritizing Montenegro overlooks regional dynamics, such as Serbia's stalled process and calls for collective Balkan accession. Journalist Michael Martens tweeted in December 2025, "Crna Gora ne ide nigde. Bar ne u EU," highlighting doubts over readiness. Balancing this, supporters counter that Montenegro's small size, population under 620,000, makes it a manageable addition, potentially enhancing EU cohesion without overwhelming resources. These views underscore the irony: While Montenegro leads in reforms, EU internal biases and external pressures could still impede full Montenegro EU accession.

Future Outlook for Montenegro EU Accession

Looking ahead, Montenegro EU accession holds profound implications for investors and the Western Balkans. With aims to close all chapters by 2026 and join by 2028, success could unlock billions in EU funds, boosting sectors like tourism and renewable energy. For wealth managers and tech entrepreneurs, this translates to stable markets and innovation hubs, potentially attracting foreign direct investment amid global economic shifts. Yet, sustaining consensus on reforms will be key, as any political reversal could echo past delays. Ultimately, Montenegro EU accession not only tests EU enlargement viability but also shapes regional stability, offering a blueprint for balanced, merit-driven integration in an uncertain world.